Updated August 2026 — A practical scoring framework you can complete with a free plan in about 15 minutes. Designed for ages 45–70 deciding whether "someday" is actually "soon."
Net Worth Is a Vanity Metric Near Retirement
Two households can both show $1.2 million net worth:
| Household A | Household B | |
|---|---|---|
| Investable assets | $1,050,000 | $550,000 |
| Home equity | $150,000 | $650,000 |
| Mortgage | $0 | $280,000 @ 6.5% |
| Annual spend need | $55,000 | $95,000 |
| Social Security (combined FRA) | $48,000 | $32,000 |
| Ready to retire? | Often yes | Often not |
Same headline net worth. Opposite readiness.
What you need is a readiness score built from cash-flow math, not a Zillow-plus-brokerage screenshot.
The 7 Numbers (Score Yourself 0–2 Each)
Max score: 14. Be harsh. Optimistic scoring is how people retire into anxiety.
| Points | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 2 | Clearly on track |
| 1 | Borderline / needs work |
| 0 | Material gap |
1) Investable assets (not total net worth)
Count: 401(k), IRA, brokerage, HSA, taxable investments.
Usually exclude: primary residence (unless downsize is committed), cars, personal property.
| Score | Rule of thumb (couple, moderate COL area) |
|---|---|
| 2 | Portfolio ≥ 25× portfolio-funded annual spending |
| 1 | 18–25× |
| 0 | Under 18× |
Portfolio-funded spending = total retirement spend − Social Security − pension − other guaranteed income.
2) Income floor coverage
What percentage of essential expenses is covered by Social Security + pension + annuity + reliable rental net?
| Score | Essentials covered by guaranteed income |
|---|---|
| 2 | ≥ 70% |
| 1 | 40–69% |
| 0 | Under 40% |
A high floor means sequence risk hurts less. A low floor means your portfolio is your paycheck.
3) First-year withdrawal rate
First-year portfolio withdrawal ÷ starting portfolio.
| Score | Rate (after guaranteed income) |
|---|---|
| 2 | ≤ 3.5% |
| 1 | 3.5–4.5% |
| 0 | > 4.5% |
Early retirees (30+ year horizons) should bias stricter. Mid-60s retirees with pensions can sometimes tolerate more.
4) Monte Carlo / plan success probability
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| Score | Success probability |
|---|---|
| 2 | ≥ 85% |
| 1 | 70–84% |
| 0 | Under 70% |
Build your plan and see the baseline →
Full percentile distribution and risk analysis unlock with Pro after your free setup.
5) Savings rate & catch-up power (if still working)
| Score | Still working |
|---|---|
| 2 | Saving ≥ 20% of gross or maxing workplace plan + catch-up |
| 1 | 10–19% |
| 0 | Under 10% with gaps to goal |
If already retired, score this 2 if you have a written withdrawal policy; 0 if withdrawals are vibes-based.
6) Healthcare bridge clarity
| Score | Situation |
|---|---|
| 2 | Medicare path clear or ACA/employer/retiree medical modeled with realistic premiums |
| 1 | Rough estimate only |
| 0 | "We'll figure it out" before 65 |
Healthcare is the #1 budget bomb between 55 and 65. A plan that ignores premiums is fiction.
7) Debt & flexibility
| Score | Profile |
|---|---|
| 2 | No high-interest debt; housing ≤ ~30% of retirement budget; clear "cut list" for bad markets |
| 1 | Manageable mortgage; some flexibility |
| 0 | High fixed costs, variable-rate stress, or no discretionary layer to cut |
How to Read Your Total
| Score | Label | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 12–14 | Ready (with monitoring) | Fine-tune taxes, Social Security, estate details |
| 9–11 | Close | Pick 1–2 levers (spend, work longer, delay SS, save harder) and re-score in 90 days |
| 6–8 | Not yet | Do not resign on hope; rebuild the math |
| 0–5 | High risk | Focus on earnings, debt, and savings rate before optimization toys |
Worked Example (Score Along)
Pat, 61, single
- Investable: $920,000
- Essentials: $48,000/yr · SS at 67 est. $28,000 · pension $0
- Portfolio must fund ~$20,000 if claiming at 67, or more if retiring at 62 before SS
- Wants to retire at 62, claim SS immediately, spend $56,000 total
Rough scoring:
- Assets vs need while bridging — 1 (tight if lifestyle stays high)
- Floor at 62 — 0 (SS early helps later, weak at the start)
- Withdrawal rate early years — 0–1
- Success probability without changes — often 0–1 until spending or timeline moves
- Still working catch-up — 1 (two more years of maxing would help)
- Healthcare to Medicare — 0 if unpriced
- Flexibility — 1
Total ~4–6: not a "quit Friday" plan. Fix healthcare cost, delay retirement or trim spend, re-run success rate, then decide.
The 90-Day Readiness Sprint
If you scored under 12:
Days 1–7 — Measure
Enter every account, debt, and a full monthly budget. No rounding to flattering numbers.
Days 8–30 — Floor
Get SSA estimates. Price healthcare. Separate essentials vs lifestyle.
Days 31–60 — Stress
Run a multi-scenario check. Test: retire 1 year later; spend 10% less; delay SS. Record which lever moves the success rate most.
Days 61–90 — Commit
Write the rule: "I retire when success rate ≥ __% and healthcare is funded for __ years." Put the date on a calendar only after the numbers clear the bar.
Where People Self-Sabotage the Score
- Counting home equity as spendable without a downsize plan
- Using peak recent market value as the permanent portfolio
- Ignoring spouse longevity and survivor Social Security
- Assuming the 4% rule applies unchanged to early retirement
- Optimizing Roth conversions before knowing whether the base plan works at all
Free Audit → Full Confidence Path
You can capture all seven numbers with RetirePro's free plan: accounts, budget inputs, Social Security estimates, and a basic results view.
When you want the deeper readiness stack — full Monte Carlo percentiles, optimizer-style Social Security comparison, and richer analysis — that is the Pro layer. Premium adds AI Q&A on your plan when you want a second set of eyes on the tradeoffs.
The point of a readiness score is not a gold star. It is a go / no-go gate before irreversible decisions: resignation, pension survivor elections, or draining a taxable account for a celebratory year of travel.